This paper offers C6 Intelligence’s top five predictions for the anti-financial crime, risk, and compliance technology ecosystem in 2025.

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1/  Introduction

Evolving criminal tactics and significant technological advancements are transforming our economies, for better and worse.  There’s a parallel trend in the anti-financial crime and identity ecosystem.  We are at a pivotal juncture.

Looking towards 2025 and beyond, I proffer five predictions that will influence the dynamics of the aforementioned ecosystem. These predictions highlight imminent trends and underscore strategic imperatives for firms aiming to stay ahead. They collectively chart the future course of the industry.

2/  Top 5 Predictions

#1:  The AI Agents are coming:  more than 15% of regulated financial institutions will employ them in production by the end of 2025.  

There’s an inevitability about this.  In 2023, 70% of respondents to E&Y’s survey noted risk and compliance as the top area for generative AI application in banks.

#2:  Regulators will demand vertically specific AI agents by 2028.

We’ll have to revisit this one.  Historically, regulator modus operandi is “no…now what’s your question?”.  Unfortunately, the proliferation and speed at which generative AI is penetrating our day to day has an air of inevitability that even a regulatory regime (which is about to get a pruning when we add Chevron doctrine and a 2nd Trump term) can’t capture.  The response?  Any AI agent used can only be constructed for that specific anti-financial crime task. 

#3:  There will be > 25% increase in investment and M&A activity next year.

Reviewing C6’s engagements since launching in September, and >50% of my touchpoints have been about market opportunities.

Greenwich Capital Group notes the incoming administration’s stated policies, if effectively executed, are likely to create a more favorable environment for M&A activity.  In the first Trump Administration, through the one year period after he was elected, US M&A activity was the highest ever in terms of dollar amount and total transactions in the history of modern presidents.  There’s no evidence the second term will be any different.

#4:  The majority of existing software providers will continue to misunderstand that their product(s) are not fit to service the client segments they plan their GTM around.

The biggest misalignment in the industry centers on the break between client needs (fluid) and product development (rigid). 

#5:  Of the terms “Identity”, “Orchestration Layer”, and “FRAML”, one will be consensually defined and the other two will cease to exist by 2030. 

We can dream, can’t we?

3/  Conclusion

The prepared investors, solution providers, and operators should be excited for the next 3-5 years.  There are prime opportunities to capitalize on your growth objectives.  If you don’t feel the optimism, start asking yourself what the cost of not embracing these trends will be to your organization. 

• What’s the impact of not having an internally and externally facing generative AI strategy in my annual planning cycle?  
• What happens if my product doesn’t address the needs of my GTM target segments?
• How much ROI will I miss out on if I don’t have an investment thesis in this ecosystem?
• Will my program fall behind when benchmarked against my peers if I don’t embrace industry shifts?  How will the regulators view that?

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